2023 SEC win totals, odds, picks: Predictions as Georgia eyes perfection, LSU takes the next step – CBS Sports

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With Texas and Oklahoma set to enter the SEC in 2024, divisions will soon be eliminated and the conference landscape we’ve known since 1992 will go the way of the dinosaurs. Traditionalists have one more season savor the old ways before things get nuts.
Both the LSU and Tennessee secured victories over Alabama a year ago, but now the Crimson Tide will have a shot at revenge with the Tigers and Volunteers set to make trips to Tuscaloosa. 
Two-time national champion Georgia will look to continue its dominance after running the table and flattening TCU in the College Football Playoff National Championship in January. Coach Kirby Smart will be breaking in a new quarterback after Stetson Bennett IV guided the team to back-to-back national titles. 
What do the oddsmakers think of the 2023 SEC season? Let’s break down the Caesars Sportsbook win total projections and make game-by-game predictions (subject to many, many changes).
Over/under 10.5 wins
The Crimson Tide have a ton of questions (by Alabama standards) heading into the season, starting at quarterback where they picked up former Notre Dame signal-caller Tyler Buchner to compete with Ty Simpson and Jalen Milroe. That’s a big problem considering they’ll host Texas and star Quinn Ewers — who torched the Tide in last season’s matchup before leaving the game with injury — in Week 2. LSU is going to be tough as well considering the stability on the roster after last season’s run to the division title. The saving grace for coach Nick Saban is that the road schedule is a piece of cake save for the always-wild trip to Jordan-Hare Stadium for the Iron Bowl. If the Tide top Texas or LSU, they’ll go over. I’m going to go under, but would never place a bet against Saban with my actual money. Pick: Under 10.5 (-140)
Over/under 7.0 wins
Arkansas fans love to say the SEC schedule-makers hate the Razorbacks, and it’s hard to argue based on the road schedule they have in 2023. Don’t get me wrong, I love coach Sam Pittman and quarterback KJ Jefferson is a dark-horse contender for the Heisman Trophy, but going to Death Valley, Oxford, Tuscaloosa and Gainsville in the same season is just mean. Luckily for the Hogs, the home schedule is relatively easy, and they should top Texas A&M in a neutral-site game. 
Pick: Over 7 (+120)
Over/under 7.0 wins
Hugh Freeze has his work cut out for him considering the state of the roster Bryan Harsin left behind. Games against Georgia and Alabama are at home (as is the case on odd-numbered years), but upsets in either of those is highly unlikely. A nonconference game at California is manageable, and the Tigers drew Vanderbilt as their rotating cross-division road game. Freeze should be able to orchestrate a two-game improvement from last season and hit the Las Vegas win total. The Tigers are capable of springing some upsets, but also susceptible to a few slip-ups. Pick: Push
Over/under 5.5 wins
There’s not a lot of faith among the Gators fanbase going into Billy Napier’s second year. The season is bookended with a trip to Utah and and a finale against rival Florida State — two teams that have a chance to contend for a College Football Playoff berth. The shaky quarterback situation is more concerning, however, as Graham Mertz and Jack Miller III battle it out to be the starter. On the other side of the ball, the Gators defense was far from stout a year ago. Even with a strong rushing attack, it’s hard to imagine them taking a massive step forward. Even if they do, the schedule doesn’t do them any favors. Pick: Over 5.5 (-140)
Over/under 11.5 wins
Typically, it’s hard to take the over on any team when it requires running the table. However, it’s hard to bet against the the two-time national champions in any capacity. Kirby Smart has proven he can reload as well as — if not better than — the Alabama teams of the mid-2010s. Sure, there’s a quarterback battle between Carson Beck and Brock Vandagriff, but Smart picked up two difference-makers at wide receiver from the transfer portal in Dominic Lovett (Missouri) and Rara Thomas (Mississippi State). Plus, the Bulldogs only have three true road conference games with the annual rivalry game with Florida taking place in Jacksonville, Florida. Pick: Over 11.5 (+110)
Over/under 6.5 wins
Quarterback Devin Leary should kick start an offense as Liam Coen settles in for his second stint as Wildcats offensive coordinator. The combination of Coen and Leary will be enough to keep them in the majority of their games and spring a couple of minor upsets along the way. The problem for Stoops is that his running game and offensive line struggled mightily last season. If he can get that sorted out, this might be one of the better wagers on the board. We have to see it before believing it, though. Pick: Over 6.5 (-160)
Over/under 9.5 wins
LSU has a legit quarterback in Jayden Daniels, a deep wide receiver corps led by Malik Nabers, an experienced offensive line, one of the best defensive players players in the country in linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. and coach Brian Kelly successfully addressed the biggest roster hole — the secondary — in the transfer portal. They Tigers drew Missouri as their road cross-division game, which isn’t exactly a difficult task. The Florida State game in Week 1 is going to be tough, but even if they lose to the Seminoles, they are more than capable of hitting the over. Pick: Over 9.5 (-120)
Over/under 6.5 wins
It’s almost impossible to know what what to expect from Zach Arnett. He stepped in to coach the Bulldogs last year after the death of the legendary Mike Leach. Mississippi State is going to keep a similar Air Raid scheme, but it would be unfair to expect the offense to hum along at the same level. The defense is going to have to take a big step forward because of that, but the personnel might not be there to do that. The Texas A&M and Auburn games will make or break the Bulldogs’ bowl chances. Unfortunately for Arnett, both of those are on the road. Pick: Under 6.5 (-130)
Over/under 6.5 wins
The Tigers have LSU on the docket as the cross-division rotating opponent, and this a bad year to catch the Tigers. What’s more, Missouri’s offensive has to improve drastically to keep Brady Cook, Sam Horn or Jake Garcia clean in the pocket. There are numerous toss-up games for coach Eli Drinkwitz, but it’s hard to trust a team that lost its top receiver (Lovett) and hasn’t used former stud recruit Luther Burden III in the way that many anticipated. Pick: Under 6.5 (-140)
Over/under 7.5 wins
This win total seems to suggest that the Rebels defense will struggle and the three-man quarterback battle featuring Spencer Sanders, Jaxson Dart and Walker Howard is one out of necessity rather than luxury. Ole Miss has one of — if not the — best running backs in the country in Quinshon Judkins, so throttling the offense down and letting the running game cook could be in the fold for coach Lane Kiffin. Road games against Alabama and Georgia will be tough, and a visit to Auburn for the “Hugh Freeze Bowl” will be a tall order. Still, the Rebels should hit the over even if they split their toss-up games. Pick: Over 7.5 (-115)
Over/under 6 wins
Quarterback Spencer Rattler should benefit from the addition of new offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains. He’ll look to take advantage of the connection Rattler developed with Antwane Wells Jr. late last season, and Arkansas tight end transfer Trey Knox should become a star in this offense. However, the defense is relatively unproven. That’ll put a lot of pressure on Rattler. Simply put, the Gamecocks will take a small step forward in Shane Beamer’s third season in Columbia, South Carolina. As a result, they’ll cruise to the over. Pick: Over 6 (-140)
Over/under 9 wins
Expectations are high in Knoxville despite significant roster losses including quarterback Hendon Hooker and receiver Jalin Hyatt. There’s optimism that veteran Joe Milton III can keep the offense cranking at a high level, but keep in mind he lost the starting job in each of the last two seasons. He won’t be able to replicate the success Hooker enjoyed, and the Vols will take a small step back. However, knocking on the door of 10 wins should be music to the ears of anyone who has followed Tennessee football for the last 15 years. Pick: Push
Over/under 8.5 wins
Jimbo Fisher brought in Bobby Petrino to run the offense after another less-than-stellar season. That’s how desperate Fisher is to turn things around. The receiver room is solid, and the eventual starting quarterback — Conner Weigman or Max Johnson — should be able to provide a small spark for the offense now that there’s some familiarity on the roster. However, the Aggies need more than just a “small spark” to get to the nine-win mark and cash over tickets. Pick: Under 8.5 (-170)
Over/under 3.5 wins
The Commodores gained some confidence down the stretch when they topped Kentucky and Florida in back-to-back weeks, but it’s going to be hard to sustain that level considering it lost the majority of their defense. That will put pressure on the offense to cash in red zone possessions. They were awful in that department last season when they managed just 24 touchdowns inside the 20-yard line (86th nationally). That’s not going to change all that much. Pick: Under 3.5 (+130)
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